Future Babble: How to Stop Worrying and Love the Unpredictable (BOK)

Dan Gardner

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In 2008, as the price of oil surged above $140 a barrel, experts said it would soon hit $200; a few months later it plunged to $30. In 1908, it was pronounced that there would be no more wars in Europe; we all know how that turned out. Face it, experts are about as accurate as dart-throwing monkeys. And yet every day we ask them to predict the future - everything from the weather to the likelihood of a terrorist attack. "Future Babble" is the first book to examine this phenomenon, showing why our brains yearn for certainty about the future, why we are attracted to those who predict it confidently, and why it's so easy for us to ignore the trail of outrageously wrong forecasts. In this fast-paced, example-packed, sometimes darkly hilarious book, Dan Gardner shows how seminal research by professor Philip Tetlock proved that the more famous a pundit is, the more likely they are to be right about as often as a stopped watch. Gardner also draws on current research in cognitive psychology, political science, and behavioral economics to discover something quite reassuring: The future is always uncertain, but the end is not always near.

Produktfakta

Språk Engelsk Engelsk Innbinding Heftet
Utgitt 2012 Forfatter Dan Gardner
Forlag
Virgin Books
ISBN 9780753522370
Antall sider 320 Dimensjoner 12,6cm x 19,8cm x 2cm
Vekt 216 gram Leverandør Bertram Trading Ltd
Emner og form Popular science

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