Scenario Planning - Revised and Updated (BOK)
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Recent research in the field of business strategy has shown that strategic flexibility can be achieved through a scenario planning perspective for long-term competition and performance. The authors have drawn upon examples and case studies to develop a new model for scenario planning that is closely integrated with strategy and innovation. They argue that the concept of scenario planning is as much an art as a practical management tool. The first decade of the new millennium has clearly pointed to the need to prepare for the non-preparable. The dangers of failing to do this were shown in the aftermath of the insane race on the world's stock markets in the early 2000s, in the climate wake-up, the race for oil and grain, and in the real estate and financial chaos in the fall of 2008. Could these events have been foreseen and prepared for, and thus even capitalized on? We believe so. Much of what happened was not unthinkable: it could have and was imagined with the use of scenario planning. In this book we introduce the thinking behind scenario planning and provide our readers with some concepts, models and tools to take back to their own companies. It is based on almost two decades of experience of scenario planning as a strategic tool, where we as consultants have guided multinationals and medium-sized companies as well as governments and non-governmental organizations in these approaches.